Since the new fielding law was imposed in Nov 2012 – let us look at toss factor, does it really matter?. Not, really as successful teams are the ones that did not win the toss!
Teams that were send in to bat have won more games than those who won the toss and batted. And teams winning the toss/chasing lost more than, those who lost the toss/chased!
Here is a stats analysis of Toss factor.
A) Toss won and batted
(Success rate in 102 matches: 46.07 % – Average 1st bat score 253)
This table is quite predictable for top teams as they won more than 50% of their matches after electing to bat first. New Zealand- defend almost every time hence they have a higher success rate, and their first bat average score is the best. It seems they have peaked at the right time. South Africa- have progressed strongly. In last 9 games they have posted >250. Australia- since 2014 have been a bit up and down in terms of scoring big, only twice they went past 250 when they won toss/batted.
Nevertheless it is not a great experience of winning toss/batting for teams like Eng, Pak and West Indies.
Interestingly England’s average 1st bat-score is 257 which is considered very healthy, yet their success rate is less. It is their bowlers who are unable to defend >250 targets consistently, therefore they won only 2 games. Pakistan basically are not good in winning games when they win toss/bat first –but surprisingly they have been producing good solid scores up front.
| Toss won(batted) | Mt(Won) | Success rate | Average(1st bat score) | 300 score | Bat avg | R/o | Scoring rate | Boundary rate |
| New Zealand | 9(6) | 66.67 | 296 | 3 | 47.50 | 5.91 | 52.59 | 10.04 |
| South Africa | 15(9) | 60.00 | 258 | 3 | 33.62 | 5.22 | 49.43 | 8.36 |
| Australia | 14(8) | 57.14 | 252 | 5 | 31.51 | 5.29 | 47.29 | 9.04 |
| Sri Lanka | 20(10) | 50.00 | 266 | 4 | 33.44 | 5.50 | 49.66 | 9.59 |
| India | 8(4) | 50.00 | 242 | 1 | 32.27 | 5.28 | 45.44 | 9.48 |
| Bangladesh | 6(3) | 50.00 | 259 | 1 | 33.83 | 5.20 | 48.22 | 8.64 |
| Pakistan | 11(4) | 36.36 | 238 | 2 | 28.20 | 4.97 | 44.81 | 8.04 |
| England | 9(2) | 22.22 | 257 | 2 | 31.20 | 5.26 | 49.62 | 7.37 |
| West Indies | 6(1) | 16.67 | 193 | 1 | 20.35 | 4.62 | 37.82 | 8.65 |
| Zimbabwe | 3(0) | 0.00 | 204 | 0 | 22.67 | 4.71 | 40.26 | 7.69 |
| Ireland | 1(0) | 0.00 | 202 | 0 | 20.20 | 4.11 | 41.22 | 4.73 |
B) Toss won and fielded
(Success rate in 144 matches: : 43.06% Avg 1st bowl 248)
This table is quite interesting and it only suggests how teams are cautious of batting first, therefore chose to field after winning the toss. Teams that didn’t do well in Table A have done well here, viz chasing. Pakistan- who have won 6/9 games don’t bowl that well first up/toss. In 9 games they haven’t got teams bundled out, and the min score is 227 (v/s Ind).
India- has made it a habit to field first after winning the toss. Their majority wins are against Bangladesh/Zim/WI – however they have bundled out teams for <200 seven times, most by any side.
England -over all perform better if they bowl first/toss – They have bundled teams(NZ/SA/IND(2)/SL) inside 200 score- 5 times.
Australia- has displayed its worst performance when they win toss/bowl- Every time they conceded >250 score, (five times it went past 300)!!! …two games were abandoned.
South Africa -too have similar problem – In 11 games conceded > 250 seven times (4 x >300 score)
Sri Lanka – Inspite having a variable bowling attack(like Pakistan) the Lankans fail to bundle out teams…only once.
| Toss won(bowled) | Mt(Won) | Success rate | Average(1st bowl score) | Bowl Avg | R/o | Scoring rate | Boundary rate |
| Pakistan | 9(6) | 66.67 | 265 | 40.44 | 5.37 | 45.72 | 9.27 |
| India | 27(16) | 59.26 | 249 | 32.00 | 5.20 | 44.80 | 9.42 |
| England | 16(9) | 56.25 | 235 | 27.22 | 5.22 | 45.18 | 9.37 |
| Sri Lanka | 15(8) | 53.33 | 242 | 39.52 | 5.53 | 50.43 | 9.01 |
| South Africa | 11(5) | 45.45 | 263 | 31.78 | 5.50 | 46.03 | 9.90 |
| West Indies | 20(8) | 40.00 | 261 | 37.79 | 5.65 | 46.81 | 10.03 |
| New Zealand | 13(4) | 30.77 | 223 | 29.57 | 5.49 | 46.59 | 10.29 |
| Australia | 7(2) | 28.57 | 241 | 38.32 | 6.00 | 50.62 | 10.91 |
| Bangladesh | 8(2) | 25.00 | 194 | 27.26 | 4.88 | 41.39 | 8.16 |
| Zimbabwe | 14(2) | 14.29 | 282 | 41.19 | 5.66 | 51.04 | 8.70 |
| Afghanistan | 1(0) | 0.00 | 248 | 31.00 | 4.96 | 45.00 | 9.00 |
| Scotland | 2(0) | 0.00 | 265 | 58.78 | 7.56 | 55.95 | 16.90 |
| Ireland | 1(0) | 0.00 | 219 | 27.38 | 4.38 | 38.67 | 7.67 |
C) Toss lost and asked to bat (1st bat)
(Success rate in 144 matches: 49.31% Avg 1st batting 248)
South Africa – it is not dangerous to ask South Africa to bat!. They didn’t lose 10 success games when asked to bat. They are more dangerous when they bat first than chasing!. Australia – love to bat first irrespective of toss factor. They have been asked to bat 15 times, and 11 times they manage to pass >250 score.
West Indies: Most fascinating stats of all. If they win toss/bat first, than they bat poorly, however if they are asked to bat than their average is 266 (5 times going past 250 mark). This typify how teams think of toss factor. They are not sure what to choose. Same is the case with Pakistan (although they have better toss/win/bat factor).
| Toss lost(1st bat) | Mt(Won) | Success rate | Average of Score | Bat avg | R/o | Scoring rate | Boundary rate |
| South Africa | 16(11) | 68.75 | 280 | 44.34 | 6.09 | 52.41 | 10.38 |
| Australia | 15(9) | 60.00 | 284 | 40.19 | 5.72 | 47.33 | 10.60 |
| West Indies | 11(6) | 54.55 | 266 | 38.51 | 5.35 | 43.14 | 9.99 |
| Pakistan | 13(7) | 53.85 | 239 | 30.45 | 4.99 | 44.48 | 7.97 |
| Sri Lanka | 19(10) | 52.63 | 215 | 30.28 | 5.21 | 45.32 | 8.87 |
| India | 19(10) | 52.63 | 248 | 35.49 | 5.63 | 48.09 | 10.28 |
| Afghanistan | 2(1) | 50.00 | 207 | 25.81 | 4.34 | 36.01 | 7.69 |
| Bangladesh | 12(5) | 41.67 | 260 | 33.60 | 5.21 | 48.15 | 8.34 |
| England | 15(6) | 40.00 | 231 | 29.62 | 5.43 | 48.98 | 9.18 |
| New Zealand | 16(6) | 37.50 | 247 | 34.43 | 5.77 | 48.65 | 10.82 |
| Ireland | 1(0) | 0.00 | 269 | 38.43 | 5.38 | 43.33 | 9.67 |
| Zimbabwe | 5(0) | 0.00 | 177 | 18.79 | 4.06 | 32.21 | 7.33 |
D) Toss lost and chased (2nd bat)
Success rate in 102 matches: 50.00%
(Target of >=250 score: success rate – 32.07%)
Australia – it must be very pleasing for Australian fans to see their team chasing targets consistently/successfully. In those 11 chase, 6 were >250 target. India – it’s a regular show for them to chase down whether they win the toss or not. In these 9 games 6 were >275 targets!.
New Zealand(4) and Sri Lanka(6) have been asked regularly to chasing >275 when teams chose to bat first against them.
| Toss lost/2nd bat | Mt(Won) | Success rate | Bat avg | R/o | Scoring rate | Boundary rate |
| Australia | 11(10) | 90.91 | 40.50 | 5.55 | 47.65 | 9.74 |
| India | 9(6) | 66.67 | 49.60 | 6.14 | 52.25 | 11.89 |
| New Zealand | 10(6) | 60.00 | 30.49 | 5.40 | 46.48 | 10.08 |
| Sri Lanka | 19(11) | 57.89 | 32.11 | 5.17 | 44.70 | 9.46 |
| Bangladesh | 6(3) | 50.00 | 30.00 | 5.40 | 41.70 | 11.51 |
| Zimbabwe | 4(2) | 50.00 | 31.25 | 4.59 | 40.28 | 7.93 |
| South Africa | 10(4) | 40.00 | 24.13 | 4.75 | 41.72 | 8.54 |
| West Indies | 7(3) | 42.86 | 30.55 | 5.22 | 46.76 | 9.09 |
| England | 8(2) | 25.00 | 25.77 | 5.23 | 47.65 | 8.12 |
| Pakistan | 17(4) | 23.53 | 25.18 | 4.89 | 42.86 | 8.44 |
| Afghanistan | 1(0) | 0.00 | 12.40 | 3.23 | 27.16 | 5.60 |
Here is how teams chased down various targets (all measures).
| Targets | Mts | Won |
| 225 or more | 168 | 62(36.90%) |
| 250 or more | 127 | 35 (27.56%) |
| 275 or more | 89 | 18(20.22%) |
| 300 or more | 54 | 8(14.81%) |
| 325 or more | 28 | 4(14.29%) |
| 350 or more | 15 | 2 (13.33%) |
links to all the stats indicators http://allthatcricket.com/?p=1489
