16 May / 2015(319)…Prophecy of statistics: Net Run Rate

What is a Net Run Rate(NRR) and how is it calculated : Run rate scored divided by run rate conceded.

However it does not include runs and wickets of abandoned games. These score are not summed up while calculating net run-rate, which does not make sense and i personally disagree.

Reason being:

“Think like a Cricketer” not “statistical point of view”.

Two examples in ongoing IPL8-2015

A) Due to rain, Bangalore’s game (at home) was abandoned after they scored 200/20 overs against Rajasthan Royals.

In this game Sarfraz (youngest cricketer to play in IPL) score 45(38)* enabled RCB to post 200. He comes in and gets involved in partnerships that yields 76 runs in 6 overs.

Now the law says that 200 score cannot be included in the calculation because the game was abandoned as the opponent were not able to bat a single ball (but one point given for being abandoned)…

However team/personal scores are kept in record books and its performance can be gloated. This not only deprives the team but also the youngster of match winning performance (if they would have won) – I am sure during team meeting when they discuss about batting performance, they would definitely mention this performance which eventually had to be abandoned due to weather or other obstacles.

B)   There was another game in where Hyderabad scored 176, and rain intervened for target to be revised to 118/12 for Kolkata to chase (they lost). Now in this game the net calculation is such that Hyderabad cannot use their original score of 176 runs for NRR calculation, they have to use the revised score of 117/12 overs instead of 176/20. Here again the scores archived of teams/players would be 176 for Hyderabad, and not converted to 118(1st bat).

C ) Now a simple theory of an assumed score.

There are two abandoned games of one innings in a tournament.

Team A score 200/5 (50) in the first abandoned game, and Team B scores 100/5 (25) before rain intervenes in both games.

Now, as per ICC law both teams get one point each for their abandoned games, however these runs scored are not included in NRR, and at the end of tournament basis on NRR team B is marginally head of team A, which is not fair because if these abandoned games would have been included than maybe Team A would have a chance to qualify for the play-off


                      What should be the solution for NRR ?


1-   Keep the original score for calculation for both teams because that was the opportunity given to them to perform, and they played according to situation not knowing what would happen ahead!

2-   You don’t give points for abandoned games – cancel/ignore it totally. At this junction even one inning abandoned game gets a point for teams, but their score is not considered for NRR.

3-   By adding their score (of abandoned games) you are credited their performance in the trend of matches played. E.g. WWWLL, ABD. It’s a momentum for team to know where they stand in a tournament, and their calculated NRR would be an interesting analysis for them and their opponents.

4- In a reduced overs games, teams that chase have more chance to win, because chances of losing wickets is negligible when you have a handful of overs to bat. And knowing this fact, the batting team will not bother about losing their wicket, they would only be concerned about run-rate, and hence bat with great freedom(applies to all level, quality, type of cricket). Therefore depending on No. of overs to be bowled, we constrain the batting order to losing 3 wickets(5 to bat)in 10 overs-reduced game, where the innings will end at the fall of 3rd wicket.(At this junction in a tied T20 game, one-over eliminator is played where each team bowls one over, and at the fall of 2nd wicket the inning ends.  game)

5- Ideally interrupted games should be played again next day, but it is not practical for business purpose.

6- Points and performance are related(it should be)to each other–because one plays for a place in the XI (for players) & teams like to win and move ahead in divisions and win tournaments.

Note : I would totally agree when a team is all out before the 20th over, than NRR Calculation would be to divide by 20 overs.  E.g 100/10 of 10.5 overs in a T20game. Here 100/20 and not 10.5, which makes sense as they were bundled out before the stipulated 20th over, and it also suggests that teams need to play their mandatory overs in an LIMITED OVER GAME, and are not allowed to declare irrespective of any situation. Play till the last ball/wicket.

Will end here, hope it was easy to understand. My previous prophecy of stats is here. http://allthatcricket.com/?p=7608


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