Australia have drastically slithered in Test wins.
When they lost the Ashes’2009 in UK, they were dethroned as No.1 Test team(ICC Test rankings), and since then, their success rate has fallen from 68.50 % (before Ashes 2009) to 61.87%, @end of 3rd Test in current Ashes series (2013-14 in Australia).
However for them the key factor has been the “lead”!.
How important is a lead in a Test match?.
A substantial lead (>150)is vital to win, or draw a Test match. Here is an analysis of Australia’s “lead factor” since Oct’98.
As you can see below, that in last 4 years their success rate has dropped extremely, also they are not getting enough lead of > 150 to win Test matches.
| Period | Tests | Won | % win | Lead >150 | Won | % win |
| 1998-2001(end of Ashes’01) | 38 | 26 | 68.42% | 18 | 16 | 88.89% |
| 2001-2005(end of Ashes’05) | 51 | 34 | 66.67% | 26 | 23 | 88.46% |
| 2005-2009(end of Ashes’09) | 43 | 28 | 65.12% | 13 | 12 | 92.31% |
| 2009-2013(2nd of 3rd Ashes Test) | 49 | 24 | 48.98% | 17 | 12 | 70.59% |
| 181 | 112 | 61.88% | 74 | 63 | 85.14% |
I believe a lead is key to win Test matches, and anything significant >150 is a match winner!.
Australia now sitting at No.5 in Test ranking is eager to climb. If they win the series 4-0 or,5-0, then they would jump to No.3 spot, taking England’s spot.
Now to get a lead of > 150 a team needs to score big. Let us take a total of > 400 in 1st inn as a big score, and see how many times Aussies manage to post them, and take a lead of >150.
Below is a brief of Australia test performance since ’98.
| Period | Tests | >400(1st inn)score | Lead >150 | Win/Drawn |
| 1998-2001(end of Ashes’01) | 38 | 18 | 13 | 11 |
| 2001-2005(end of Ashes’05) | 51 | 30 | 23 | 23 |
| 2005-2009(end of Ashes’09) | 43 | 20 | 11 | 11 |
| 2009-2013(2nd of 3rd Ashes Test) | 49 | 23 | 13 | 13 |
| 181 | 91 | 60 | 58 |
Now, a brief look at batsmen involvement, and various batting position.
a) Batsmen performance (1st inn) when Australia got a lead of > 150 in 1st Inns. (1998-2013). This includes inns in which Australia did not score > 400.
| 1st Inn | Inns | Runs | Centuries | Avg | St.rate | B/W | SS/balls | 4s/6s |
| Ponting | 67 | 4725 | 19 | 73.83 | 60.64 | 121.75 | 29.93 | 7.33 |
| Hayden | 44 | 3034 | 13 | 68.95 | 62.79 | 109.82 | 28.17 | 8.53 |
| Clarke | 38 | 2979 | 13 | 87.62 | 62.39 | 140.44 | 30.66 | 8.02 |
| Langer | 45 | 2892 | 11 | 65.73 | 57.50 | 114.32 | 26.88 | 7.50 |
| Gilchrist | 45 | 2725 | 10 | 71.71 | 84.29 | 85.08 | 36.84 | 12.03 |
| S Waugh | 36 | 2487 | 13 | 82.90 | 51.05 | 162.40 | 25.88 | 6.03 |
| Hussey | 27 | 1833 | 8 | 70.50 | 56.40 | 125.00 | 28.74 | 7.05 |
| Martyn | 25 | 1377 | 5 | 57.38 | 54.95 | 104.42 | 26.14 | 6.98 |
| Haddin | 19 | 1077 | 4 | 63.35 | 65.67 | 96.47 | 30.55 | 8.66 |
| M Waugh | 26 | 962 | 4 | 37.00 | 54.81 | 67.50 | 25.24 | 7.46 |
| Lehman | 15 | 942 | 3 | 62.80 | 62.10 | 101.13 | 30.72 | 7.58 |
| Katich | 18 | 889 | 2 | 49.39 | 48.08 | 102.72 | 24.01 | 5.41 |
| Slater | 17 | 794 | 2 | 46.71 | 52.83 | 88.41 | 24.42 | 7.05 |
| Watson | 16 | 605 | 0 | 37.81 | 49.35 | 76.63 | 22.02 | 6.85 |
| Warner | 8 | 460 | 2 | 57.50 | 97.87 | 58.75 | 38.30 | 14.47 |
In above table, highlighted batsmen are currently playing for Australia in the ongoing Ashes.
b) Here is performance in batting order. (1st Inn / lead of > 150). This includes inns in which Australia did not score > 400.(1998-2013)
| Bat No. | Inns | Runs | Centuries | Avg | St.rate | B/W | SS/balls | 4s/6s |
| I | 75 | 4224 | 14 | 56.32 | 57.98 | 97.13 | 25.98 | 8.04 |
| II | 75 | 4507 | 17 | 60.09 | 59.33 | 101.29 | 27.10 | 7.75 |
| III | 75 | 4888 | 18 | 68.85 | 58.31 | 118.07 | 28.64 | 7.26 |
| IV | 75 | 3734 | 14 | 49.79 | 53.95 | 92.28 | 26.43 | 6.81 |
| V | 75 | 5866 | 27 | 88.88 | 57.21 | 155.36 | 28.73 | 7.03 |
| VI | 75 | 3990 | 17 | 63.33 | 57.62 | 109.92 | 28.72 | 6.77 |
| VII | 69 | 3667 | 13 | 61.12 | 73.08 | 83.63 | 33.28 | 9.84 |
| VIII | 62 | 1335 | 0 | 23.02 | 64.21 | 35.84 | 29.10 | 8.42 |
| IX | 62 | 1263 | 0 | 29.37 | 57.59 | 51.00 | 26.63 | 7.57 |
| X | 53 | 628 | 0 | 15.32 | 57.40 | 26.68 | 25.50 | 7.50 |
| XI | 48 | 257 | 0 | 11.17 | 47.95 | 23.30 | 22.20 | 5.04 |
Interestingly, since the Lord’s Test (2nd Ashes Test in UK) Australia played 6 Tests, & had a lead in all of them.
3rd Test, Old Trafford – lead of 159 – Drawn
4th Test, Chester el Street, lead of 32 – Lost
5th Test, The Oval, lead of 159 – Drawn
1st Test, Gabba, lead of 159 – Won
2nd Test, Adelaide, lead of 398 – Won
3rd Test, WACA, lead of 134 – Won
So far 39 Tests been played by all teams this year. In which…
a) 24 times(61.53%) teams have scored > 400 in 1st Inn, and only once a team(Australia) lost that Test.
b) A lead of > 150 was given in 23 Tests(58.97%) and not a single test was lost. Either it was a drawn or a win.
c) 1st inn score of >400 has been achieved 24 times(61.53%), in which 16 times(41.02%)teams had a lead of >150, and once again not a single test was lost by these teams. Either it was a draw or a win.
All data updated till end of 3rd Ashes Test @WACA, 2013-14.
Here is a link to meaning of all ndicators/formula – http://allthatcricket.com/?p=1489
