In a Test match, if a player happens to score a century in the first innings, then (85 %) his team won’t lose that game, and it has remained the same in last 5 years.
On other hand, if a bowler picks a 5wicket haul in the first innings, then (75%)his team won’t lose that game, and it has remained the same in last 5 years.
In the second innings, the chances of scoring a hundred is far less than picking 5 wickets haul, hence famous quote, “Test matches are won by bowlers”
Bowlers become more powerful and penetrative (with much support from weather & pitch)as game progresses. The last 2 days of a Test match is where fielding team picks wickets for less runs, and any formidable target(200+) is not easy to chase by team (success rate 5.13%).
Suggesting that first innings remains paramount factor for a Test match.
Criteria | Win(%) | non-loss( %) |
Batsman scoring a 100 in Test match | 41.68% | 85.56% |
Batsman scoring a 100 in 1st inn | 44.91% | 88.99% |
Batsman scoring a 100 (1st bat/1st inn) | 42.01% | 89.25% |
Batsman scoring a 100 in last inn | 32.14% | 70.41% |
If a century is scored by an opener, than chances of winning, or not losing a Test match is maximized for a team, no other factor is more responsible than a opener’s contribution.
Neverthless, if one measure only “win factor”, then bowlers picking five wickets/inn have been more successful (51.35%), then batsman scoring centuries (41.66%), however it is only in the 2nd innings they become more powerful and effective.
Criteria | Win (%) | non-loss(%) |
5wickets in a Test match | 51.37% | 75.76% |
5wickets in 1st inn | 39.33% | 71.00% |
5wickets (1st bowl)in 1st inn |
39.22% | 70.85% |
5wickets in last inn | 87.23% | 93.62% |
The highest number of 5wicket haul is picked by opening bowlers, but its the spinners(when not opening) who have marginal better win ratio when they pick a 5 wicket haul.
Criteria | Fast bowlers | Spinners |
5wickets haul in a Test match | 50.82% | 53.13% |
5wickets in 1st inn | 39.42% | 39.29% |
5wickets(1st bowl)1st inn | 39.45% | 38.00% |
5wickets in last inn | 86.52% | 87.88% |
India’s Test criteria
Centuries for Indian Batsman | Win(%) | Non-loss(%) |
Batsman scoring100 in Test match | 26.41% | 84.11% |
Batsman scoring100 in 1st inn | 29.64% | 88.27% |
Batsman scoring100 (1st bat) in 1st inn | 27.04% | 92.45% |
Batsman scoring100 in last inn | 17.39% | 21.74% |
The ratio remains same for Indian openers
5wicket haul (win %) | Fast bowlers | Spinners |
5wickets haul in Test match | 22.22% | 46.02% |
5wickets haul in 1st inn | 9.86% | 32.48% |
5wickets haul (1st bowl)in 1st inn | 10.81% | 29.09% |
5wickets haul in last inn | 83.33% | 87.50% |
All data processed from (1888-2011) including recently concluded Ind-Eng series.