In a Test match, if a player happens to score a century in the first innings, then (85 %) his team won’t lose that game, and it has remained the same in last 5 years.
On other hand, if a bowler picks a 5wicket haul in the first innings, then (75%)his team won’t lose that game, and it has remained the same in last 5 years.
In the second innings, the chances of scoring a hundred is far less than picking 5 wickets haul, hence famous quote, “Test matches are won by bowlers”
Bowlers become more powerful and penetrative (with much support from weather & pitch)as game progresses. The last 2 days of a Test match is where fielding team picks wickets for less runs, and any formidable target(200+) is not easy to chase by team (success rate 5.13%).
Suggesting that first innings remains paramount factor for a Test match.
|Batsman scoring a 100 in Test match||41.68%||85.56%|
|Batsman scoring a 100 in 1st inn||44.91%||88.99%|
|Batsman scoring a 100 (1st bat/1st inn)||42.01%||89.25%|
|Batsman scoring a 100 in last inn||32.14%||70.41%|
If a century is scored by an opener, than chances of winning, or not losing a Test match is maximized for a team, no other factor is more responsible than a opener’s contribution.
Neverthless, if one measure only “win factor”, then bowlers picking five wickets/inn have been more successful (51.35%), then batsman scoring centuries (41.66%), however it is only in the 2nd innings they become more powerful and effective.
|5wickets in a Test match||51.37%||75.76%|
|5wickets in 1st inn||39.33%||71.00%|
5wickets (1st bowl)in 1st inn
|5wickets in last inn||87.23%||93.62%|
The highest number of 5wicket haul is picked by opening bowlers, but its the spinners(when not opening) who have marginal better win ratio when they pick a 5 wicket haul.
|5wickets haul in a Test match||50.82%||53.13%|
|5wickets in 1st inn||39.42%||39.29%|
|5wickets(1st bowl)1st inn||39.45%||38.00%|
|5wickets in last inn||86.52%||87.88%|
India’s Test criteria
|Centuries for Indian Batsman||Win(%)||Non-loss(%)|
|Batsman scoring100 in Test match||26.41%||84.11%|
|Batsman scoring100 in 1st inn||29.64%||88.27%|
|Batsman scoring100 (1st bat) in 1st inn||27.04%||92.45%|
|Batsman scoring100 in last inn||17.39%||21.74%|
The ratio remains same for Indian openers
|5wicket haul (win %)||Fast bowlers||Spinners|
|5wickets haul in Test match||22.22%||46.02%|
|5wickets haul in 1st inn||9.86%||32.48%|
|5wickets haul (1st bowl)in 1st inn||10.81%||29.09%|
|5wickets haul in last inn||83.33%||87.50%|
All data processed from (1888-2011) including recently concluded Ind-Eng series.