England should ring few changes. Because debutants with experience perform better (v/s Australia 42.08).
Here is why.
Since they won back Ashes in 2005, England had 12 Batsmen(Bat # 1-7) making their Test debut, and out of which 3 made hundreds(Cook, Prior & Trott). If we sum their debut inns (21 inns by 12 batsmen) than the average runs/wkt = 55.05!!. Suggesting that debutants bat with more freedom and less pressure. Here is a list of countries whose batsmen debuted between 1-7 Bat No.
| 2006-2013 | Debutants Bat No.(1-7) | Centuries | Avg |
| AUS | 14 | 2 | 38.30 |
| BAN | 11 | 29.35 | |
| ENG | 12 | 3 | 55.06 |
| IND | 12 | 3 | 41.00 |
| NZ | 22 | 2 | 27.76 |
| PAK | 16 | 2 | 35.12 |
| SA | 5 | 2 | 54.29 |
| SL | 11 | 20.71 | |
| WI | 17 | 2 | 24.96 |
| ZIM | 12 | 27.24 |
Interestingly > 70.00% of these debutants had experience of >25 1st class matches. For England they have Gary Ballance(67 1st class mts) & Jonny Bairstow(80 1st class mts)as a extra specialist batsman in this squad. Johnny has played 12 Tests but performed poorly in last Ashes. Perhaps Ballance can be inducted with one fresh fast bowler(Boyd Rankin).
If England were to ring few changes in the playing XI, than it might unsettle Australia because since 2006 batsmen who debuted against Australia have done exceptionally well. There were 15 debutants, and if we sum their debut inns (28 inns)than the average runs/wkt = 42.08, v/s Australia. England’s debutant average v/s Australia stands @. 46.20.
To end this short whisper, another inspiring fact for England should be their overseas comparison with Australia. Since 2010, England’s overseas record is 40.00% victory, compare to Australia’s 28.57 %.
Here is a link to meaning of all ndicators/formula – http://allthatcricket.com/?p=1489
