Since 2010 success rate of chasing less than 150 has dropped by 26%. … and merely 3% drop while chasing more than 150!.
In simpler terms, chasing lower targets has become difficult for teams, but not if they are chasing more than 150.
At the conclusion of SA SL series – South Africa had the opportunity to clean sweep the series (3-0). They scored 163 (the highest in the series) a total which is defendable, In fact only 2 twice (before this game) they lost defending more than 150.
However they lost the game comfortable, and never ever had the privilege to clean sweep their opponent.
The other two occasion were they lost defending more than 150 are.
1- 158 against Australia @ Gabba losing by 6wkts
2- 166 against New Zealand @ East London losing by 8wkts
And it was quite an interesting chase/win for Sri Lanka, who in first two games failed to chase small targets of 116 & 145, losing quite comfortably by 12/22 runs….
In past their chasing has been very confusing.
1- Anything less than 150, won 7 out of 15 (46.66%)
2- Anything more than 150, won 6 out of 11(54.54 %)
Suggesting Lankans are comfortable chasing big targets.
This made me wonder whether chasing lower target is easy ? Surprisingly it has become very difficult for teams to chase less than 150. There is consistent drop in success rate.
Below is table of year wise success rate of chasing greater than and less than 150 score.
|Year||Target : less than 150||Target: 150 or more|
|2005||100.00 %||20.00 %|
|2006||100.00 %||31.82 %|
|2007(World Cup)||86.67 %||31.82%|
|2008||85.00 %||12.50 %|
|2009(World Cup)||62.50 %||32.35 %|
|2010(World Cup)||68.89 %||20.83 %|
|2011||66.67 %||22.22 %|
|2012(World Cup)||63.64%||31.25 %|
|2013||42.86 %||18.18 %|
Failure of top order/top batsmen has trigger the fall.
If the opening partnership is 50 or more = 73.43% success rate
If the second wkt partnership is 50 or more = 45.63% success rate
If Opening Batsmen(Bat No1 & Bat No 2) score 50 or more = 69.47% success rate.
If one of the Top 4 Batsmen scores 50 or more = 61.97% success rate.
PS – The average 1st batting score in all T20I = 149.86, hence used 150 as my par score. (associate teams playing against each other is not included)